基于机器学习的海洋环境预报订正方法研究     

许立兵  王安喜  汪纯阳  陈悦  陈昱文  周峥  陈幸荣  邢建勇  刘克威  黄小猛 《海洋通报》2020,39(6):695-704

结合中尺度数值模式 WRF 预报数据和 ERA5 再分析资料，利用机器学习方法对 WRF 预报场的风场、温度、气压进行预报订正。采用 ERA5 作为真值，与原始 WRF 预报相比，利用随机森林模型可以将预报结果整体均方根误差降低 44%以 上，利用深度神经网络模型可以将预报结果整体均方根误差降低 34%以上。通过随机森林模型实验得到不同输入特征对预报要素的影响程度，分析了关键的预报订正因子。  相似文献   

Perceptions of Land Tenure Security in Rural China: The Impact of Land Reallocations and Certification     

Guangcheng Ren  Xueqin Zhu  Nico Heerink  Ekko van Ierland 《社会与自然资源》2019,32(12):1399-1415

Abstract

Tenure security is commonly recognized as an important factor in stimulating long-term investments in land. Recent studies suggest that a distinction between legal, actual and perceived tenure security needs to be made in analyzing tenure security. This study discusses the relationships between legal, actual and perceived land tenure security in rural China, and empirically examines the impact of actual on perceived land tenure security by applying Probit models to household and village survey data collected in four provinces. Using household expectations about the absence of land reallocations within the next five years as the dependent variable, we find that tenure security is positively affected by the possession of land certificates in villages that periodically reallocated land but not in villages that did not do so. The estimated impact is larger for land certificates issued in the new round of land certification than for land certificates that were issued earlier.  相似文献   

Modelling atmospheric and hydrologic processes for assessment of meadow restoration impact on flow and sediment in a sparsely gauged California watershed          下载免费PDF全文

N. Ohara  M. L. Kavvas  Z. Q. Chen  L. Liang  M. Anderson  J. Wilcox  L. Mink 《水文研究》2014,28(7):3053-3066

The restoration of meadowland using the pond and plug technique of gully elimination was performed in a 9‐mile segment along Last Chance Creek, Feather River Basin, California, in order to rehabilitate floodplain functions such as mitigating floods, retaining groundwater, and reducing sediment yield associated with bank erosion and to significantly alter the hydrologic regime. However, because the atmospheric and hydrological conditions have evolved over the restoration period, it was difficult to obtain a comprehensible evaluation of the impact of restoration activities by means of field measurements. In this paper, a new use of physically based models for environmental assessment is described. The atmospheric conditions over the sparsely gauged Last Chance Creek watershed (which does not have any precipitation or weather stations) during the combined historical critical dry and wet period (1982–1993) were reconstructed over the whole watershed using the atmospheric fifth‐generation mesoscale model driven with the US National Center for Atmospheric Research and US National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. Using the downscaled atmospheric data as its input, the watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model was applied to this watershed. All physical parameters of the WEHY model were derived from the existing geographic information system and satellite‐driven data sets. By comparing the prerestoration and postrestoration simulation results under the identical atmospheric conditions, a more complete environmental assessment of the restoration project was made. Model results indicate that the flood peak may be reduced by 10–20% during the wet year and the baseflow may be enhanced by 10–20% during the following dry seasons (summer to fall) in the postrestoration condition. The model results also showed that the hydrologic impact of the land management associated with the restoration mitigates bank erosion and sediment discharge during winter storm events. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

ISA model: A constitutive model for soils with yield surface in the intergranular strain space          下载免费PDF全文

W. Fuentes  Th. Triantafyllidis 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2015,39(11):1235-1254

In this article, a new constitutive model for soils is proposed. It is formulated by means of plasticity, but in contrast to the precedent works, it presents a yield function describing a surface within the intergranular strain space. This latter is a state variable providing information of the recent strain history. An expression for the plastic strain rate has been proposed to guarantee the stress rate continuity. Under the application of medium or large strain amplitudes, the constitutive equation becomes independent of the intergranular strain and delivers a mathematical structure similar to some Karlsruhe hypoplastic models. Some simulations of monotonic and cyclic triaxial test are provided to evaluate and analyze the model performance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions          下载免费PDF全文

Elisabeth Stephens  Paul Bates 《水文研究》2015,29(19):4264-4283

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD‐FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post‐peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Modelling sediment deposition and phosphorus retention in a river floodplain          下载免费PDF全文

M. González‐Sanchis  J. Murillo  A. Cabezas  J. E. Vermaat  F. A. Comín  P. García‐Navarro 《水文研究》2015,29(3):384-394

Phosphorus (P) is one of the major limiting nutrient in many freshwater ecosystems. During the last decade, attention has been focused on the fluxes of suspended sediment and particulate P through freshwater drainage systems because of severe eutrophication effects in aquatic ecosystems. Hence, the analysis and prediction of phosphorus and sediment dynamics constitute an important element for ecological conservation and restoration of freshwater ecosystems. In that sense, the development of a suitable prediction model is justified, and the present work is devoted to the validation and application of a predictive soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) uptake and sedimentation models, to a real riparian system of the middle Ebro river floodplain. Both models are coupled to a fully distributed two‐dimensional shallow‐water flow numerical model. The SRP uptake model is validated using data from three field experiments. The model predictions show a good accuracy for SRP concentration, where the linear regressions between measured and calculated values of the three experiments were significant (r² ≥ 0.62; p ≤ 0.05), and a Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (E) that ranged from 0.54 to 0.62. The sedimentation model is validated using field data collected during two real flooding events within the same river reach. The comparison between calculated and measured sediment depositions showed a significant linear regression (p ≤ 0.05; r² = 0.97) and an E that ranged from 0.63 to 0.78. Subsequently, the complete model that includes flow dynamics, solute transport, SRP uptake and sedimentation is used to simulate and analyse floodplain sediment deposition, river nutrient contribution and SRP uptake. According to this analysis, the main SRP uptake process appears to be the sediment sorption. The analysis also reveals the presence of a lateral gradient of hydrological connectivity that decreases with distance from the river and controls the river matter contribution to the floodplain. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Enhancement of backtracking search algorithm for identifying soil parameters     

Yin-Fu Jin  Zhen-Yu Yin 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(9):1239-1261

In this paper, an enhanced backtracking search algorithm (so-called MBSA-LS) for parameter identification is proposed with two modifications: (a) modifying the mutation of original backtracking search algorithm (BSA) considering the contribution of current best individual for accelerating convergence speed and (b) novelly incorporating an efficient differential evolution (DE) as local search for improving the quality of population. The proposed MBSA-LS is first validated with better performance than the original BSA and some other typical state-of-the-art optimization algorithms on a benchmark of soil parameter identification in terms of effectiveness, efficiency, and robustness. Then, the efficiency of the MBSA-LS is further illustrated by two representative cases: identifying soil parameters from both laboratory tests and field measurements. All comparisons demonstrate that the proposed MBSA-LS algorithm can give accurate results in a short time. Finally, to conveniently solve the problems of parameter identification, a practical tool ErosOpt for parameter identification is developed by integrating the proposed MBSA-LS and some other efficient algorithms for readers to conduct the parameter identification using optimisation algorithms.  相似文献   

A smoothed cap model for variably saturated soils and its robust numerical implementation          下载免费PDF全文

P. Gamnitzer  G. Hofstetter 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2015,39(12):1276-1303

This paper deals with the numerical implementation of a cap model for unsaturated soils. It provides a brief review of existing cap model approaches, based on which an improved model formulated in terms of generalised effective stress and matric suction is derived and described in detail. Although the proposed model is a multisurface plasticity model, it can efficiently be implemented using only single‐surface projections because of the smoothness of the model, which is obtained by construction. Numerical algorithms are provided for these single‐surface stress projections, using a single‐equation approach whenever possible. The robustness of the utilised single‐equation approaches is enhanced by proposing problem‐fitted start‐up procedures based on investigations of the nonlinear projection equations. A comparison of the model response with extensive material test data is used to validate the model and to demonstrate the robust application of the approach to silty sands and low to medium plasticity clays. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Integrating isolated and riparian wetland modules in the PHYSITEL/HYDROTEL modelling platform: model performance and diagnosis          下载免费PDF全文

Maxime Fossey  Alain N. Rousseau  Fatima Bensalma  Stéphane Savary  Alain Royer 《水文研究》2015,29(22):4683-4702

Mathematical modelling is a well‐accepted framework to evaluate the effects of wetlands on stream flow and watershed hydrology in general. Although the integration of wetland modules into a distributed hydrological model represents a cost‐effective way to make this assessment, the added value brought by landscape‐specific modules to a model's ability to replicate basic hydrograph characteristics remains unclear. The objectives of this paper were the following: (i) to present the adaptation of PHYSITEL (a geographic information system) to parameterize isolated and riparian wetlands; (ii) to describe the integration of specific isolated wetland and riparian wetland modules into HYDROTEL, a distributed hydrological model; and (iii) to evaluate the performance of the updated modelling platform with respect to the capacity of replicating various hydrograph characteristics. To achieve this, two sets of simulations were performed (with and without wetland modules), and the added value was assessed at three river segments of the Becancour River watershed, Quebec, Canada, using six general goodness‐of‐fit indicators and 14 water flow criteria. A sensitivity analysis of the wetland module parameters was performed to characterize their impact on stream flows of the modelled watershed. Results of this study indicate the following: (i) integration of specific wetland modules can slightly increase the capacity of HYDROTEL to replicate basic hydrograph characteristics; and (ii) the updated modelling platform allows for the explicit assessment of the impact of wetlands (e.g. typology and location) on watershed hydrology. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Watershed delineation using hydrographic features and a DEM in plain river network region          下载免费PDF全文

Zhengqing Lai  Shuo Li  Guonian Lv  Zhirong Pan  Guosong Fei 《水文研究》2016,30(2):276-288

Watershed delineation is a required step when conducting any spatially distributed hydrological modelling. Automated approaches are often proposed to delineate a watershed based on a river network extracted from the digital elevation model (DEM) using the deterministic eight‐neighbour (D8) method. However, a realistic river network cannot be derived from conventional DEM processing methods for a large flat area with a complex network of rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and polders, referred to as a plain river network region (PRNR). In this study, a new approach, which uses both hydrographic features and DEM, has been developed to address the problems of watershed delineation in PRNR. It extracts the river nodes and determines the flow directions of the river network based on a vector‐based hydrographic feature data model. The river network, lakes, reservoirs, and polders are then used to modify the flow directions of grid cells determined by D8 approach. The watershed is eventually delineated into four types of catchments including lakes, reservoirs, polders, and overland catchments based on the flow direction matrix and the location of river nodes. Multiple flow directions of grid cells are represented using a multi‐direction encoding method, and multiple outflows of catchments are also reflected in the topology of catchments. The proposed approach is applied to the western Taihu watershed in China. Comparisons between the results obtained from the D8 approach, the ‘stream burning’ approach, and those from the proposed approach clearly demonstrate an improvement of the new approach over the conventional approaches. This approach will benefit the development of distributed hydrological models in PRNR for the consideration of different types and multiple inlets and outlets of catchments. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献